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The Warning Cycle
When predictions about AI start shaping policy, evidence and incentives matter.
Sep 13
•
Craig Hepburn
The Same Two Letters
Why sensible people can look at artificial intelligence and see completely different things.
Sep 12
•
Craig Hepburn
1
Your Company Runs on Borrowed Time
Nobody at Vercel can say no. Except security. What that tells you about what a company is for.
Sep 3
•
Craig Hepburn
2
August 2026
You Can Keep the Weights
NVIDIA is buying Hugging Face at a reported 12.9 billion dollars. What that means for open models, and for everyone who will never visit the site.
Aug 27
•
Craig Hepburn
1
Payment Required
Stripe didn’t buy an AI company. What a 7.5 billion dollar summer says about where value is settling.
Aug 25
•
Craig Hepburn
2
July 2026
From Prompting to Directing
The mental shift behind loops, orchestration, and everything being built on top of them.
Jul 23
•
Craig Hepburn
The Person Was the Machine
We ran the work on people because there was nothing else to run it on. Now there is.
Jul 21
•
Craig Hepburn
2
The Three Clock Problem
One runs fast, one has started running backwards, and one has barely moved.
Jul 1
•
Craig Hepburn
4
1
1
June 2026
The Work Was Always There
Every company is sitting on years of work it gave up on, because fixing it was never worth the cost. The cost has fallen, and the backlog is becoming…
Jun 18
•
Craig Hepburn
2
1
The Fourth Factor
For three centuries a company was land, labour and capital. A fourth input has arrived, it is sold by the unit, and almost nobody has learned to…
Jun 16
•
Craig Hepburn
4
2
Cognition Is a Controlled Substance
A government has decided that access to a powerful enough mind is something it can license, restrict and revoke. We are going to be living with that…
Jun 13
•
Craig Hepburn
4
3
1
Everyone Is About to Have the Same Intelligence
What stays yours is all that is left to compete on.
Jun 2
•
Craig Hepburn
3
2
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